> ## Documentation Index
> Fetch the complete documentation index at: https://docs.elevatedsignals.ai/llms.txt
> Use this file to discover all available pages before exploring further.

# Forecast

> Demand planning meets cost intelligence.

Demand planning meets cost intelligence. Forecast vs actual delivery comparison, volume tier
sensitivity, automated spend calculation, and a monthly budget vs actuals pivot table.

## Volume Tier Alerts

Materials where the volume tier changed year-over-year, with the per-unit price impact and total spend
delta. When demand drops below a tier threshold, the base price increases — for example, a material
falling from a 200-unit tier to a 100-unit tier can add tens of thousands of dollars to annual spend.
These shifts are invisible in spreadsheets. Flag tier-shift materials for procurement review — volume
commitments or demand aggregation across sites could recover the lower-tier price.

## Forecast vs Actual Delivery

Compares forecast volumes to actual delivery volumes from supplier delivery data, flagging materials
with significant variance. Forecast accuracy drives inventory efficiency: over-forecasting means excess
stock and tied-up working capital; under-forecasting means stockouts and rush orders at premium freight.
Review flagged materials with planning leads — persistent over-forecasting suggests the demand model
needs recalibration; persistent under-forecasting may indicate unplanned consumption or safety-stock
draws.

## Forecast Table

Material-level forecast volumes with actual deliveries, variance %, volume tiers with change warnings,
base pricing with tier-shift deltas, and spend. The single view that connects demand, pricing, tier
economics, forecast accuracy, and financial exposure — something that required multiple spreadsheets
and manual joins before. Look for materials with tier warnings and large variance percentages — those
are where the biggest cost and planning risks live.

## Portfolio Trend

A visual chart comparing forecast volumes year-over-year across all materials, highlighting significant
shifts. Quickly spot which materials are growing vs declining — large shifts often trigger tier changes,
supply risk, or procurement renegotiation opportunities.

## Monthly Budget vs Actuals

A pivot table with materials as rows and months as columns. Toggle between unit and currency views, and
between Variance, Actual, and Budget modes. This is the inventory optimization signal — it reveals
monthly consumption patterns: which months had spikes, which had gaps, where you over- or
under-consumed relative to plan. Look for materials with consistently flagged months — those are
systematically over-consuming and driving excess inventory. Use the total column to prioritize by
annual impact.

## Spend Exposure

Forecast volume × base price = total spend exposure per material. This is the number procurement cares
about most — currency normalization makes cross-material spend comparison instant regardless of
supplier currency.